Dortmund vs Mainz Expected Goals (xG), Forecast & Details

Sport Picks

Germany

Bundesliga Signal Iduna Park

Scoring Trends

Dortmund

Mainz

Goals Scored

1.25

1.75

Goals Conceded

1.13

1.56 Expected Goals (xG) 1.50

100%

Over 1.5

88%

75%

Over 2.5

38%

63%

Over 3.5

25%

Detailed Analysis

Explore Head-to-Head and Form below for more insights.

Expert Analysis by Omoye ThankGod

Dortmund hold a slight statistical advantage, though this match remains competitive. The game flow could swing back and forth as teams find their rhythm.

Their head-to-head record shows a history of competitive battles. With teams so evenly matched, the draw offers significant statistical value. The numbers provide a solid foundation for this match outlook.

Possible Outcome Probability

Match Winner

Home Win52%

Draw19%

Away Win29%

Goals & Scoring

Both Teams to Score52%

Over 1.5 Goals85%

Over 2.5 Goals55%

Match Events

Widmer S.

10'

Guirassy S.

Assist: Ryerson J.

15'

Beier M.

Assist: Ryerson J.

Previous Encounters

13 Feb 26 BUN

Dortmund ✓

4:0

Mainz

27 Sept 25 BUN

Mainz

0:2

✓ Dortmund

30 Mar 25 BUN

Dortmund ✓

3:1

Mainz

09 Nov 24 BUN

Mainz ✓

3:1

Dortmund

11 May 24 BUN

Mainz ✓

3:0

Dortmund

Recent Form (Last 5)

Dortmund

Home Team

21 Mar

Dortmund

3 : 2

Hamburger

14 Mar

Dortmund

2 : 0

Augsburg

07 Mar

1. FC Koln

1 : 2

Dortmund

28 Feb

Dortmund

2 : 3

Bayern Munich

25 Feb

Atalanta

4 : 1

Dortmund

Mainz

Away Team

19 Mar

Mainz

2 : 0

Sigma Olomouc

15 Mar

Werder Bremen

0 : 2

Mainz

12 Mar

Sigma Olomouc

0 : 0

Mainz

07 Mar

Mainz

2 : 2

VfB Stuttgart

28 Feb

Bayer Leverkusen

1 : 1

Mainz

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	27	22	4	1	97:25	70
2	Dortmund	27	18	7	2	58:28	61
3	RB Leipzig	27	15	5	7	53:35	50
4	VfB Stuttgart	26	15	5	6	51:34	50
5	Hoffenheim	27	15	5	7	54:39	50
6	Bayer Leverkusen	27	13	7	7	52:36	46
7	Eintracht Frankfurt	26	10	8	8	49:49	38
8	Freiburg	26	9	7	10	37:43	34
9	Augsburg	26	9	4	13	31:45	31
10	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	31:46	31
11	Hamburger	27	7	9	11	31:40	30
12	B. Monchengladbach	27	7	8	12	33:46	29
13	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	30:47	28
14	Mainz	26	6	9	11	31:41	27
15	1. FC Koln	27	6	8	13	38:47	26
16	St. Pauli	26	6	6	14	23:42	24
17	Wolfsburg	27	5	6	16	35:57	21
18	Heidenheim	27	3	6	18	27:61	15

Match Preview: Dortmund vs Mainz

The upcoming fixture between Dortmund and Mainz promises to be an engaging encounter in Bundesliga. Scheduled for Friday, February 13, 2026 at 19:30 UTC, the match will take place at Signal Iduna Park. Both sides will be looking to make their mark in this scheduled event.

Team Context & Standings

Entering this game, both Dortmund and Mainz are focused on their respective objectives for the season. Dortmund will look to leverage their competitive standing to gain an advantage, while Mainz aims to improve their league position with a positive result on the road.

Head-to-Head & History

Previous meetings between these two sides often provide context for what to expect. While past results offer a glimpse into tactical matchups, this fresh encounter brings new dynamics. The teams have their own recent history to draw upon as they prepare tactically.

Tactical Overview

The flow of the match will likely depend on which team settles into their rhythm first. Control of possession, defensive discipline, and clinical finishing in the final third are expected to be the deciding factors. Dortmund will try to assert dominance early, whereas Mainz might look for opportunities on the break or through set-pieces.

Following the Match

The match atmosphere is expected to be electric, and tracking the game minute-by-minute adds to the excitement. From the first whistle to the final moments, fans can follow every goal, momentum shift, and key event as the drama unfolds on the pitch.

Key Statistics

Modern football is often defined by the underlying numbers. Expect close scrutiny on metrics such as shots on target, possession percentages, and corner counts. These figures will illustrate which team effectively controlled the tempo and created the most dangerous chances.

Why This Matters

Three points here could be pivotal for the ambitions of either Dortmund or Mainz. Momentum is crucial in Bundesliga, and a victory in this match would serve as a significant morale booster for the winning side moving forward in the campaign.